To add insult to injury, retailers have been slow to respond to the softening demand. The economy is not opening out as fast as we thought it would and they’re experiencing deflation,” the report’s lead author, Gorjan Nikolik, explains. China propped up the world at the end of 2022 and Q1 of 2023, as 2023 rolled out it turned out the Chinese were spending less than predicted. “It’s the worst year since 2020 due to the drop in demand. The green line plots 2023's prices in US dollars per pound The Urner Barry price index for vannamei shrimp, 2019-2023 In Asia, according to the report, “virtually the entire industry is operating at a loss per kilogram sold”.
Meanwhile, in China – where it was predicted to soar, following the more recent removal of lockdown restrictions – it hasn’t rebounded as much as anticipated, leaving suppliers stuck with stockpiled inventory.Īnd Rabobank predicts that prices are likely to fall even lower, due to a further drop in demand from China, combined with the continued growth of Ecuador’s production, and the report suggests that the Asian shrimp sector could be facing its most challenging period since the initial outbreak of early mortality syndrome (EMS) hit the region in 2011. The new report suggests that continued low prices for shrimp, combined with a reduction in the availability of fishmeal, due to an El Niño-related slump in forage fish landings, is going to make margins extremely tight right across the aquaculture value chain, with shrimp farmers likely to be hit the hardest.Īs the report notes, shrimp demand in the US and Europe has experienced a sharp drop in the last six months, due to inflation and economic recessions. So forecasts Rabobank in its H2 outlook, which was published today.
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